Definitions
Foresight is a ubiquitous part of our lives but it is difficult to nail down a standard set of definitions for thinking about the future. Rather, several words are used interchangeably to mean very different things. VDH’s Foresight & Analytics team has adopted the following terminology:
- Foresight: Engaging with potential futures to improve preparedness and to influence future outcomes.
- Model: A quantitative tool that aids in understanding complex phenomena. Models have a wide array of uses during a pandemic, including forecasting, program design, and policy analysis.
- Estimate: An educated approximation of a current unknown value or situation.
- Projection: Past trends projected forward with varying degrees and types of complexity.
- Forecast: A projection or judgment about future values or outcomes that includes a recognition
of uncertainty. Uncertainty may be indicated by confidence intervals, probabilities, or margins of error. - Scenarios: Potential futures based on selected parameters.
- Prediction: A certain statement about the future. “Mark my words...X will happen.”
The future is uncertain, and each of us has the opportunity to influence future outcomes. For that reason, professional foresight results in projections, forecasts, and foresight -- not predictions.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute
COVID-19 was an unprecedented threat to public health. As COVID-19 began to appear in the United States, Virginia’s policymakers and public health officials faced a great deal of uncertainty. The Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) turned to the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute (UVA-BI) to provide expertise and Virginia-specific models. These resources quickly proved instrumental in the decision to pause alternative care facilities early in the pandemic, saving a substantial amount of resources during a critical period.
UVA-BI provided model projections, forecasts, and expert analysis for COVID-19. Their work assisted local health officials, school administrators, businesses, and individuals to assess risk and plan for the future. UVA-BI has improved and updated the models throughout this period, including undertaking innovative projects to improve projections and forecasts. Additionally, UVA-BI applied their modeling expertise to support policy-making, program design, and early warning systems. Among other areas, their work supported safe return to schools, contact tracing, genetic surveillance, hotspot identification, and community mitigation policies.
Metaculus
In 2021, the Virginia Department of Health further enhanced its foresight capabilities by partnering with the Metaculus online forecasting platform. Metaculus is a reputation-based community forecasting hub and aggregation engine that uses evidence-based methods to collect, weight, and aggregate human judgments about future events and outcomes. In April 2021, Metaculus and VDH launched the Keep Virginia Safe (KVS) forecasting tournament, a 12-month tournament providing foresight into COVID-19 and its impact on the health and well-being of Virginians. KVS was quickly followed by the Virginia Lightning Round and Real-Time Pandemic Decision-making tournaments, two shorter-term tournaments supporting UVA-BI's COVID-19 models. Although no new tournaments were launched, VDH also collaborated with Metaculus at the onset of the mpox pandemic.
The Keep Virginia Safe II (KVS II) forecasting tournament was launched in January 2023. KVS II combined the previous tournaments into a single, larger tournament. KVS II also covered a wider range of emerging public health threats, with an increased focus on providing foresight for operations, preparedness, and planning purposes.