UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: March 10, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Weekly case rates continue to decline. As of March 7, the seven-day average of daily reported cases is 7.5 per 100k. The daily average has not been above 10 per 100k since November of 2022.
  • For the second week in a row, not a single county or city is reporting high CDC COVID-1919 community levels. Over 97% of Virginians reside in localities at low community levels. Ten localities with 218,000 residents are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should wear a mask in indoor public places
  • Hospital admissions are also declining, and have dropped 13% week-over-week. However, Virginia is still experiencing over 400 hospital admissions per week. As of March 9, there were 368 people in Virginia hospitals with COVID-19 as the primary diagnosis, including 53 in the ICU and 22 on ventilators. Although COVID-19 continues to decline, COVID-19 still has the potential to cause severe disease, particularly among seniors and those with comorbidities.
  • XBB.1.5 remains the dominant variant in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. While there is a large mix of variants circulating globally, none have shown concerning characteristics.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.