Last Updated: January 13, 2023
NOTE: This is an abbreviated report. UVA Biocomplexity Institute slides will resume on January 20. Additionally, COVID-19 scenario projection updates are paused. Foresight work will focus on genomic surveillance, short-term forecasts, and respiratory disease risks. Scenario projections will be incorporated into slides and the modeling report when warranted (e.g., a new variant of concern emerges). Modeling dashboards will remain up, but will not be updated until new projections are created, and links have been removed from this post.
Key Takeaways
- Weekly case rates remain high but may have plateaued. The 7-day average is 26.6 per 100k. This is a 50% increase since last month, but lower than last week’s rate.
- Sixty-five counties and cities are reporting high COVID19 community levels. This represents 3.03 million Virginians. The CDC recommends residents of these areas wear masks when in indoor public places. Another 48 areas are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should also mask in public.
- Hospital occupancy remains high, but growth may be slowing. The 7-day moving average is now at 1,069. As with cases, this is up from last month, but down from last week. ICU and ventilation patient numbers remain largely unchanged.
- The CDC now estimates that the XBB and XBB.1.5 subvariants are dominant in Virginia and growing. They represent 54% of new cases in the Commonwealth.
- Models forecast a continued decline in flu hospitalizations. This is coupled with a slight increase in COVID19 hospitalizations. Overall, it is expected that hospitals in Virginia will face a stable patient load for the rest of the month.
- XBB is not thought to be more virulent than earlier strains. But it can sicken those with prior immunity. Please consider getting a bivalent COVID19 booster if you haven’t already. Also please continue to practice good prevention.
This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.