UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

COVID19 case rates continue to grow across the Commonwealth. They have now risen to about 18.7 per 100k, up from 10.6 per 100k just two weeks ago. Yet, the statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is down slightly at 0.973. All health regions are also hovering around Rₑ ≈ 1.
Thirty-three of Virginia’s thirty-five health districts are now in growth trajectories. Sixteen of these are in surge. Only two are not showing growth.
Eight counties and cities are now reporting high CDC community levels. A further 60 locales are at medium community levels. Masking is recommended for all those living in high level areas, and for high-risk individuals in medium level areas.
COVID19 hospitalizations are up again this week at 707. This is the highest level seen since early September. Influenza hospitalizations continue to be relevant as well. Together the two viruses hospitalize about 1,000 Virginians per week.
Models suggest that Virginia may be experiencing the beginnings of a winter surge. The best way to protect yourself and your family is to practice good prevention. Also, please consider getting your flu shot and bivalent booster when possible.
Note that due to holiday closures at the University of Virginia, there will be no modeling report between Christmas and New Year’s Day. We expect the next full modeling run to be on January 11, 2023. If COVID19 trends change significantly before then, this may be pushed up to January 4, 2023.