Key Takeaways
- Case rates continue to dwindle in Virginia. They are now down 45% since the start of September. The effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is now below 0.9 for all health regions as well as statewide. Twelve of Virginia’s thirty-five health districts are in slow growth trajectories, but none are in surge. Most districts are in decline.
- Only five localities in the Commonwealth are still reporting “High” community levels. Masking in indoor public places is still recommended for everyone in these communities. A further 49 localities are reporting “Medium” community levels. High-risk individuals in these communities should continue masking as well.
- Hospitalizations in Virginia have fallen significantly. They are now down by over 25% since the start of September. Hospitalizations typically lag reported cases by a few weeks. As such, this decline will likely continue in the coming weeks.
- Variant proportions continue to evolve as expected. BA.4.6 and BF7 are making slow progress against BA.5 which remains dominant. There is no significant growth by any novel variant in the Commonwealth.
- Models suggest the possibility of a winter surge. If the Commonwealth follows the same trajectory it did in 2020 and 2021, transmission rates will begin increasing in the next few weeks. It is critical that Virginians get boosted this fall. Models suggest that a bivalent booster campaign could prevent 150,000 cases by March.
- Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-09-21. The next modeling update will be 2022-10-05 for release the following Friday.
UVA COVID-19 Model Projections Dashboard.
UVA COVID-19 District Trajectory Dashboard.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.
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