UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

Reported case rates across the Commonwealth continue along a slow decline. They are down by about 30% since this time last month. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is also now well below one at 0.833.
Despite decreasing case rates at the state level, fifteen of Virginia’s 35 districts are in growth trajectories with three in surge. All three were also in surge last week.
Thirty-eight localities are still at “High” community levels. Masking in indoor public places is recommended for everyone in these regions. A further 52 localities report “Medium” community levels where masking is suggested for high-risk individuals.
Hospitalizations in Virginia have begun a slow decline. They are now down about 10% compared to this time last month. Models continue to project a slow decline in hospitalizations in the coming weeks.
BA.5 continues as the dominant subvariant in Virginia. But BA.4.6 is slowly gaining ground. At the moment there is no significant growth of BA.2.75 or BF.7 in Virginia, but the CDC and VDH are carefully tracking both.
Models continue to suggest the possibility of a major surge should a new variant coincide with the Holiday Season. They also suggest that bivalent boosters could save hundreds of lives and prevent thousands of hospitalizations in Virginia.
Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-09-07. The next modeling update will be 2022-09-21 for release the following Friday.