UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: August 5, 2022

Key Takeaways

Across the nation, case rates are beginning a slow but steady decline. Hospitalization trends are always a few weeks behind. Most states are still showing slow growth or plateaued hospitalization trajectories.
We continue to see a mixture of slow growth and declining case rate trajectories in Virginia. Only two health districts are currently in surge. Statewide, case rates remain level. The effective reproduction number continues to hover around one. Urgent care and emergency room visits for COVID19-like illness have also flattened out.
Though we are not seeing significant statewide growth, Virginia has plateaued at an elevated level. Currently 122 of our 133 localities are experiencing Medium or High community levels. Hospitalizations have grown slightly. Models suggest they will level off in the coming weeks.
The BA.5 subvariant continues to out-compete its cousins in Virginia. The newer BA.4.6 and BA.2.75 subvariants are being tracked carefully. So far, there is no indication of substantial growth by either in Virginia.
Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-07-27. The next modeling update will be 2022-08-10 for release the following Friday.