UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: July 22, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates remain high and continue to grow. Current rates are 5.1 times higher than the mean rates of Summer 2021. Twenty-eight districts are in growth trajectories. This includes eight in surge.
  • Hospitalizations have grown slowly but consistently for the past three weeks. Wastewater surveillance and test positivity rates also suggest continued growth in Virginia.
  • The BA.5 subvariant now represents an estimated 73% of new cases in our region. We expect it to continue to drive growth across Virginia.
  • A total of 61 localities are now at High community levels. At these levels, the CDC recommends masking in public indoor places for all residents. A further 55 are at Medium community levels. High risk individuals in these communities should also consider masking.
  • Please continue to practice good prevention. Though the situation has improved since winter, we are not in a “summer lull”.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-07-13. The next modeling update will be 2022-07-27 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.