UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: March 11, 2022

NOTE: VDH is currently completing a report on the COVID-19 modeling and projection project. We would appreciate it if you would complete this quick survey to provide feedback and insight on how this information is used.

Key Takeaways

Case rates and hospitalizations are continuing their steep decline across the Commonwealth. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) remains below 0.75.
For the second week in a row, all 35 health districts are in decline. Nationally, all 50 states and the District of Columbia are also in decline.
Community transmission levels remain high in the Alleghany and Lynchburg areas, as well as in the Far Southwest. Residents should continue to mask in indoor public places.
The CDC estimates that about 10% of new cases in Virginia are caused by the BA.2 subvariant. The growth rate of BA.2 has slowed considerably, but it is still expected to become dominant.
Models project a continued decline in statewide case rates. The BA.2 subvariant may slow this decline, but another surge is not expected.
Note that this is an interim report. Models will next be run on 2022-03-16 for release the following Friday.