UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: December 27, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates continue to grow across the Commonwealth and remain at a high level. Currently, 21 of 35 health districts are in surge trajectories, while nine are in slow growth.
  • The statewide reproduction rate (R) is still above one.
  • The Omicron scenario projects a sudden surge, reaching 15,000 daily cases in late January. This is more than twice the maximum rate seen during the Winter 2021 surge.
  • Holiday travel and activities may contribute to an even larger surge.
  • The CDC estimates that Omicron now accounts for over 75% of new cases in the mid-Atlantic region.

Note: There will be no modeling update in the week between Christmas and New Years. The models will next be updated on 2022-01-05 and published on the following Friday, 2022-01-07.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.