UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: November 19, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates in Virginia have leveled off. No health districts are in Surge, but several are now showing Slow Growth. Overall, Virginia’s trajectory has moved from Declining to Plateau.
  • Self-reported mask usage has stalled across Virginia, with 61.5% of respondents masking when in crowded public places (down from 65.5% in the first week of November).
  • Booster vaccine administrations have tapered slightly, but the authorization of Pfizer vaccine for children aged 5-11 years has caused an significant increase in first time dose administrations.
  • Models continue to forecast a slow decline, but also suggest that seasonal factors and holiday travel could shift our trajectory towards another winter surge rivaling that of Winter 2020.

Note: There will be no weekly update next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.