UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: September 27, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Overall case rate growth has slowed, but trends are mixed across the Commonwealth, with much of the Southwest still in “Surge”.
  • Virginia may be “cresting the peak” of this Delta wave, but case-rates and community transmission remain quite high.
  • Though models forecast an imminent peak, followed by a slow decline in cases, masking and social distancing are still the best option for limiting short-term impacts on your community.
  • Models also suggest that if transmission patterns mirror those of Fall and Winter 2020, we may see a larger peak in January.
  • Vaccines remain the most effective way to reduce cases in the long-term, as well as protect against hospitalization and death.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.