UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Last Updated: January 8, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • The holidays are still affecting testing and case data and projections
    • Cases surged prior to Thanksgiving, paused over the holiday, surged again after, and have paused again
    • Data will not fully reflect the holiday impact until next week, and projections are difficult to interpret in the interim
    • This week’s projections reflect a pause in case growth over the holidays but this may be temporary
  • Test positivity is above 15%, indicating that some cases are likely being missed
  • Projections include preliminary estimates of the affect of vaccine deployment. The impact is limited early in 2021.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.