UVA COVID-19 Modeling Update

Last Updated: December 25, 2020

Key Takeaways

  • Virginians appear to be adjusting demand for testing around the holidays causing abrupt shifts in case data
    • Cases surged prior to Thanksgiving, paused over the holiday, surged again after, and have paused again (see page 3 of the Full Weekly Report)
    • Abrupt shifts in data lead to abrupt shifts in model projections, making interpretation of case and model data challenging
    • This will likely continue into early January
    • This week’s projections are significantly lower than last week’s, however, this may be short term reflection of holiday data shifts
  • Test positivity is consistently above 10%, indicating that some cases are likely being missed
  • Activities over the holidays will largely dictate the course of the pandemic early in 2021.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.