UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • The UVA model projects what could happen if current conditions continue unchanged. Behavior and policy changes, along with unforeseen events, will effect projections.
  • The statewide reproduction rate remains 1.0 while regional results are mixed.
  • The national situation continues to deteriorate, including among states bordering Virginia. Except for DC, all bordering states have cases higher than 20/100k residents.
  • In Virginia, 25 of 35 local health districts are in growth trajectories, including 8 in surge trajectories.
  • National and state trends are concerning as we enter the holiday season, heralding colder weather and increased travel.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.